Syria’s fall out Comes to Pakistan

 

The careful whisper has definitely moved into mainstream and if not curtailed with transparency, the fallout can be immense. The ethic storm of Middle East has started moving into Pakistan, and there cannot be a worse scenario than what we have in hand right now. By logic, the strengthening rupee might have opened an economic debate but being in Pakistan the strings have been traced to ethnic divide, political maneuvers and above all, the dynamics of “Friendly Country”. The case of $ 1.5 billion grant and its “conditionality” has pitched the political and religious parties against one another.

                Syria has been an episode whose precedence is hard to find. The ideology, the much talked “Spring” of Arabian Peninsula has been tainted with conspiracies and foreign vendetta. Later, the issue saw titans clashing (US and Russia) on unprecedented diplomatic front, with Putin moving to ordinary Americans with his plea of West neutrality over the issue but to top it all, it severely tested the endurance of Arab alliance over Assad where fault lines like never before have emerged. Assad’s all out assistance by Hezbollah has already crippled the fragile détente in Lebanon while other neighbors are already feeling the strain. The steady turnaround of uprising from oppression to sectarian has proved catalyst in the bloodiest nature of the conflict.

                The conduct of rebels or fighters engaged against Asad regime have changed the prospective of many actors sponsoring or at least sympathizing with them initially. Mainstream Western media has itself aired gruesome accounts of rebels conduct in war, including footages of fighters humiliating the dead corpses and the same is not ruled out of Assad’s basket as well. The initial signs were evident when TTP, now engaged with GOP in a delicate peace process claimed of sending hundreds of its devotees to Syria to fight against the regime. Pakistan’s neutrality in a sensitive issue like Syria remains the key if it wants to avoid the sectarian catastrophe within its boundaries. Contrary to this will be naïve and infact criminal as the country has already gone through its fair share of sectarian mayhem. In the past 2 decades, the trend has gained new roots with militant wings getting more organized and lethal. Target killing of renowned scholars of various sects across the country is now taking place on regular basis, reflecting limitation of Pakistan’s security apparatus in tackling these groups, receiving handsome funding and expertise from the respective camps.

                Infact, our policy makers and those making impact over it must understand that the nation is sitting on top of a volcano which requires a minimal jolt for eruption. A clear cut policy on Syria and related fronts is needed to dispel this crisis at hand. The country in question, KSA has undoubtedly assisted Pakistan in all crisis and we as a nation need to reckon this. Having said this, their interests in the region and elsewhere cannot be given precedence over our own national principles and interests. Similarly Tehran’s behavior toward Pakistan has been highly questionable in the recent years, especially when it comes to our foreign policy and counter terrorism. The recent rhetoric of moving into Pakistan’s territory in “hot pursuit” of kidnappers of its armed personnel is not only provoking but unacceptable as well. If one could recall, not long ago Tehran’s prime target Riggi was captured in a raid which had all the footprints of collaboration from Pakistan’s security services. Having said this, the reciprocity has yet to be seen especially when it comes to the militants in Baluchistan moving freely across the border.

                The question in the end may not be of the suspected $ 1.5 billion and the strings attached to it, but more of how much our political forces have learnt from their failures in the past. Public rallies like the one in Noudero yesterday is no forum to discuss or highlight issues of this sensitivity by PPP Chairperson Bilawal. Infact, a state policy for dealing with such issues need to be addressed on priority basis through consensus among all political forces in an APC prior to its reflection in state matters and action.          

Find TD on Facebook

Dear All,

For latest on your best read,

join us on facebook at Global Watch Pakistan or email us at gwpakistan@groups.facebook.com

Khan’s Political Maneuvers: A Game Plan or Mere Coincidence

The post-election run down has lived to its expectations with renewed twists and turns. Imran Khan, PTI Chairman and spearhead of Pakistan’s 2^nd largest political force has set the stage on fire with his acts and words. His latest conquest it seems has moved far away from his established political foes, the Sharif’s. Khan Sahab has for now locked horns with the Supreme Court of Pakistan, on what he terms as their inability and incompetence in ensuring transparent transition of power in Pakistan. From the word go, Khan Sahab and his highly charged followers have blamed country’s judiciary for depriving them of their due role in the country’s corridor of power, with most flawed supervision of elections held in May 2013. Initially it was over a dozen electoral seats that were termed controversial, which are now down to four. Khan’s party has demanded a reassessment on these seats for the irregularities during Election Day.

 

                To add fuel to the already ignited grievance, Presidential elections were far more than PTI and Khan Sahab could absorb. CJ decision over the change in schedule over PML-N petition was seen as a strike on PTI’s chances of winning the elections, or at least giving the ruling party a tough time. Khan Sahab showed political acumen by not going for a boycott as was the case with PPP, but his post-election criticism over judiciary has left him in the middle of a legal storm. He has been served a contempt notice for ridiculing the top most court in his interaction with media, where he went all out over the partiality of the Supreme Court judges in their activism in cases/ petitions pertaining to ruling party in comparison to the petitions in queue filed over flawed elections by his party. The 1^st hearing has made the case even worse, with what seems to be a battle going to the wire. Khan Sahab prior to the hearing had assumed a stand till the end over his controversial remarks, setting the tone for proceedings within the court. The court has played safe by giving him time to refile his response over the comments, after his replies on the said statement were rejected by the CJ. On the other hand it seems than Khan Sahab has made up his mind not to pass on a formal apology, with his claim of towing his stance come whatever may from the court.

                In politics, every action counts and when it involves a figure like Khan, the stakes get even higher. It is clear that he and his party men have not settled for the role they have in the shape of a government in KPK. For them, Islamabad is the end line and it seems that there is no desire to let it prolong for the next 5 years. For this, with the word go Khan Sahab and PTI have gone for a confrontational stance over all issues, without considering the grounds and basis at the 1^st place. From Drone Strikes to Power Outages, PTI leadership in KPK have assumed a rigid stance without addressing the central issues. The legal battle with the top court is entirely unwanted for PTI, Khan Sahab and especially Pakistan at this hour. PTI rides on the notion of change, and has brought loads of 1^st time voters to the polling station in 2013, reflecting their varying success in nearly all provinces. The change it promises can only be trusted if it is exhibited in their domain, the KPK first. But in over 30 days of being in power, the party has yet to align its actions with its words. On the eve of Presidential election, the biggest security breach has occurred in D I Khan, constitutionally under the due control of Khan Sahab and his men. A brigade of TTP warriors stormed the prison in one of the most fortified cities in KPK, achieving a shocking but comprehensive victory with the unchecked and unhindered release of over 300 terrorists. A “Mum” prevails from Islamabad to Peshawar as if nothing ever happened. It was a failure of provincial government under CM Khattak which failed to address the prior warnings by Federal Agencies over a possible assault on DI Khan jail. But most surprisingly, Khan Sahab has not taken notice of this folly or raised alarm over the collective criminal negligence of all institutions charged with the safety and security of the citizen of Pakistan. May be I got it wrong, infact Khan Sahab has already made it clear that it isn’t our war, nor we need to fight with our people even if they turned up as TTP. So instead of pursuing this episode, dialogue will be better and Adnan Rasheed can be asked as to why he has sent his devotees to DI Khan. Agreed!

                It is alarming that the 2^nd largest party shares a unique stance over an insurgency/ rebellion which has claimed over 40,000 lives in Pakistan. Dialogues in all books of political science and international affairs is done from a position of strength, else it is mere appeasement. This appeasement was adopted by the parliament over Swat, only to have Fazalullah hanging security men at Khooni Chowk a week later. The DI Khan jail break required exemplary leadership and initiative from PTI which they have gladly ignored.

Toward load shedding, Khan Sahab team has joined the mob sighting failure of federal government in addressing this issue.  Street smartness pays duly in the politics of Pakistan, and it seems that PTI is a fast learner when it comes to traditional ways of managing this land. The Federal Government has laid out a clear policy of dealing with line losses, especially power theft with iron hands. CM KPK has yet to roll out his stance over KPK mismanagement of power resources, with statistics reflecting the province as responsible for the mightiest share of entire line losses. Their backing to the mob has cultivated due results with a heavily armed procession in Bannu taking the affairs in their hands, although it was shared by the Minister for Power that the 2 grids in Bannu have an accumulative 95% line losses. So, as per policy they are ready to let those suffer across Pakistan and KPK who have paid their tariffs till date through renewed load shedding and excessive billing.

                Toward health, it was alarming that in the aftermath of 2/5 Abbottabad raid by US Seals, polio and other vaccination teams were attacked across Pakistan, including KPK. The misperception attached with vaccination is an alarming issue, exposing millions of children’s across Pakistan and KPK to perilous diseases. Having said this, till date no clear cut initiative has been taken over this issue which can be addressed quite simply through dialogue and awareness to the stakeholders involved.

                Toward drone strikes, it stands clear now that nor is Pakistan in a position to dictate its terms to the Americans nor US is ready to respect what is left of our sovereignty. The only way forward is to have a unified policy on provincial and national level. Lobbying at international level along with clear cut distinction in foes and friends will compel Americans to end this reign of shame in Pakistan. The KPK government must devise a policy of collecting first hand facts and figures over the strikes, the targeted and the civilian damage caused for a true picture over these issues. Even if Khan Sahab goes Asoka over his stance on dialogue with militants, I wonder how he will address the natives who are losing dear ones to suicide strikes every hour.

Prior to elections, ANP led government was widely involved in rampant corruption and irregularities, reflected in their performance and later accountability through votes. Over this, PTI has yet to initiate a single inquiry in KPK. Only transparent and absolute accountability can set the standards for the new legislators of PTI to follow an exemplary path, but toward this PTI is as friendly as they can be.

                In all, the nucleus of argument remains that Khan Sahab is no more a rookie as was the case a few years back. He has won the trust of millions across Pakistan but maybe he is far from realizing the obligation this has embedded. It will be tragic if the 2^nd largest party in Pakistan resorts to an action plan on these lines. It is mostly agreed that deviation from democracy has served the biggest destruction to Pakistan without mentioning that the irresponsible and reckless behavior of democratic forces in different eras have paved the way for this tragic disruption. I fear that a new page might get added sooner or later if Khan Sahab continues with his heroics.           

2012 in review

The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2012 annual report for this blog.

Here’s an excerpt:

600 people reached the top of Mt. Everest in 2012. This blog got about 7,200 views in 2012. If every person who reached the top of Mt. Everest viewed this blog, it would have taken 12 years to get that many views.

Click here to see the complete report.

The “Defense of Pakistan Phenomena”……..A Bitter Factsheet

 

Lately, the combine wrath of media, civil society and public at large has centered around the ever increasing extremist forces in Pakistan, whether labeled as “Jihadis” or some time referred to as “the league of brain-washed”. Musharraf, post 9/11 did his best to build an opinion at large against them, but it stands true that his efforts, though immense in terms of money and manpower did little. Infact, his onslaught against the “Jehadis” brought him twice close to the final resting place, with extremely well planned and calculated attacks that shook even the ranks of our armed forces to some extent, with internal inquiries and punishments. The fury of the earlier “ours”, like Ilyas Kashmiri got unleashed somewhat after 2006 with groups going rebel against the state policies, especially the one favoring our newly revived “Masters” America.

                I remember the episode surrounding “Lal Masjid”, where in public eyes for the 1^st time the extremist forces clashed head on with the designated defenders of this state, the Pakistan Army. Let me clarify that even in 2003-4, Pakistan Army was engaged in active warfare with groups led by Kashmiri, Abdullah and Baitullah Mehsud, but Waziristan being the center of activity, hardly anyone had the clue about reality of the situation. The public, having seen and witnessed them as the second line of defense, were not that liberal to change their views. Even the “Lal Masjid” episode did not change the way 180 million nationals of our land saw or felt about them, and I can recall the campaign which followed at every level to justify the heroics in the Federal Capital. To cut short, being undoubtedly bonded with the faith and the soil, the Pakistanis have always reverted to the orthodox repute attached with the non state militia that we have possessed.

                The breakthrough, desperately sought after by forces across the Atlantic and within us in reversing this trend, came when wave after wave of living bombs (suiciders) struck every inch of our land. Without distinction of mosque and school, child or mother, the barbarians some hired some sent crossed every limit that the civilization had set for itself in the evolution of mankind. With this, the unheard and the unseen sentiments of the public at large did reverse, and once thought by few started being heard more often. In all, it became a voice of all that in some shape or form, the forces within us, have to be brought under someone’s reign. The democratic government got another breakthrough with the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai. Well I thoroughly disagree that it had anything to do with the state or non state affairs of anything present inside Pakistan, but it stands true that with international pressure behind their back, the government had all the means to clamp on them, and it was done to some extent as well. The boys in uniform, once they started taking out enemies of the state in the shape of TTP, the public at large stood by them. No one looked at a party or a “Jamaat”, but looked at themselves as the defender of this motherland. This is what pumped the spirit into those holding guns, while they swept Swat, Dir, Bajaur and South Waziristan from evil and “unfriendly neighbors” imprints. But it seems, and is today witnessed that the initiative and the drive which we received from above stated incidents, got lost with a vague and undetermined policy by the executives, and their respondents. May 2^nd was the starting point for this reversal, with foreign boots getting in uninvited (as what we know) and returning unchallenged after tarnishing whatever myth of sovereignty we had. To be precise, the helicopters did get detected, the information did flow to the top level, but it is a reality that the top office bearer (presumably civilian and found writing article in foreign papers the very next day) revoked any planned action against this global humiliation. The forces, going in the background soon converged to a united platform, seldom heard of and what we see today as “Defense of Pakistan” council. Gaining public support which was shocked at the shameless inaction of those in power, they were soon back on streets declaring their return, and exhibiting their strength, not seen in the past decade or so. If the stain of walking hand in hand with a friendly enemy wasn’t enough after May 2^nd, the US struck one other nail in the coffin of Pakistan’s existence by killing 28 of our soldiers, in cold blood. The same inaction, which was witnessed in Abbotabad proved fatal as they were left as target practicing ducks against the grand US/ ISAF onslaught. The government did rally behind public sentiments by announcing blockade of all NATO/ American supplies through Pakistan indefinitely, but failed to gauge the intensity of public mood. Like May 2^nd , they were again asking why an intruder, which isn’t friendly has left unchallenged or unharmed, whereas we know and we firmly believe that our boys once unleashed won’t give them the garden jog they had in Iraq or Afghanistan. The 8 month odd blockade, with demands like no to any weapon crossing, massive increase in taxation, seize to drones attack and legitimization of all undocumented understandings was seen as a focal point for the state to reaffirm its role, more internal than  external but somehow like previous idiocy, they have again hit the dead end. The blockade, a brave move which did bring Americans to its knees, and it was evident, has been dropped in the most juvenile manner.

                The economic hardship, 100% as a result of corruption and mismanagement, has taken its toll on the top office bearers and the demands along with blockade have disappeared like fallen leaves. The apology, even if you call it, was more humiliating than anything else. The Americans very wisely used multifaceted frontier to bring us down, and they did succeeded very convincingly. The cross border raids from “God Knows Mars Militia” as witnessed in Dir, out of nowhere arrest  of a key person involved in 26/11 in most amazing circumstances along with his unseen and unheard confession was enough, infact more than enough. The brotherly America, for those who see it that way has reaffirmed its policy of use and dispose, and rest assured that in prevailing circumstances with these chartered democratic masters above our head, we will most definitely acquire it once US rolls the end game from Afghanistan.

                As I write, the DOP has left Lahore for a long march till Islamabad, and they have more than enough logics to bring masses under their flags, thanks to the unwise leadership at every level we have been gifted with. The government, in its all position of strength, has failed to agree Americans to a single demand, let alone a collection of measures. The drones will keep flying, and killing and all we will have is Ms Khar reaffirming to the nation that the 50 odd sitting in cabinet have mastered the book of global politics, patriotism and nationalism and they will spiritually lead us to the path of heaven through “White Masters” appeasement.

                 We hear all the way that forums like “DOP” get assembled through some agency, which brings them into motion. With the treachery and tyranny climbing to the level never seen or heard of, its better that forums like DOP remains tainted wth the aid of invisible hand, otherwise if the public again changes its mood to the way it was a few decades back, this storm of any sort, with just a slogan of restoring Pakistaniat, will wipe away all ethics and norms we have erected, though such policy making in my book only qualifies for appeasement exclusively. May be we have already surpassed the internal grey line, which guarantees peaceful coexistence. Is the Ghairat Birgade really a fabrication, or may be we will witness it very soon than was calculated? Lets see.

A Democratic “Treachery” in the Making

Well nothing to worry about, as we have no more to retain or preserve. From identity to sovereignty, nationalism to dignity, one after one we have compromised ourselves and keeping up the tradition, more is to come in a democratic manner.

 

For a brief preview, the honourable court, the superior of them all took up a petition few month back regarding parliamentarians, the representative of us, the deaf and dumb 180 million, and the en trustees of our future to come who have deceived the electoral system of the state by keeping in vogue their foreign nationality other than the state and the masses they have pledged to represent and defend. If i am allowed to be a bit romantic with the choice of words i make, the under discussion parliamentarians have assumed the guardianship here while remaining faithful to their white masters across the Atlantic. The court, in a historical judgement went as far as to virtually read the declaration of citizenship ofAmerica, which clearly binds its oath taker to sacrifice his or her life in defence of the state, that isAmerica itself. Ms Fauzia Inspahani, the decorated better half of declared “Enemy of the State” and the protagonist  of Memo-Gate was the 1st to face the music, with a suspension from National Assembly.

 

To add more insult to the already  wounded nation, the man entrusted with the security and defense of our state by parliament not only fooled the court but us as well  by claiming to have surrendered his British citizenship, only to be found lying a few days later for not producing the evidence for what he stated. Yes you got it right, its our very own Rehman Baba. This happens at the time when the nation has been hurt in every corner by the enemies, external or internal and a man of such credibility has been allowed to safeguard us……………Wow that’s the democratic norm of having democracy as the best revenge and guardian. The President, the honorable flag bearer of the state, couldn’t see our defense moving into mistrusted hands other than Rehman Baba. So taking view of the emerging crisis just the way he did in the case of load shedding and Karachi Massacre, the interior minister was re designated to advisor on interior, ensuring that the expertise which has guarded us internally and externally for the past 4 odd years should remain in the same role……………………Hurrah ! You need ages to have Executives above you to care for you in this manner…………………….

 

Being threatened by the courts of again bothering our ideal parliamentarians from their endless service to the masses, Dear President has personally traveled toLondon, to settle the matters with the Bhai, as his expertise in foreign relations and matters regarding national security will help decide all. As per the precedence, the democratic King and his trusted musketeers from the kind legions of ANP, MQM, Q and JUI F will do their best to safeguard our national values by joining hand on this issue, just the way they have found fraternity in combating corruption in Railways (ANP), bringing peace in Karachi (MQM), settling NICL and fertilizer sector (Q) and allocation of just and merit based Hajj Quotas (JUI F). ………………………….

Hail Democracy and the forces guarding it……………………………..

My Lord: I A “Royal Convict”

 I did my best all the way, but today’s nucleus of media screen has made two expressions permanent on my face, one of laughter and the other of distress. The foremost expression is for my Democratically, unanimously elected PM, dedicated to his innocence. I mean if merit, morality and words of the books (Constitution) are set aside, he once and for all qualifies as the best among all we had. See, that’s why I say his reply to the Honorable Court (SC) today is self explanatory of my assumptions and calculations. My PM’s stance is clear that he won’t be a “Laghari” whose hidden instincts (I stop short of conscience) made him betray his party, though no one ever considered that his role (Designation) at that time bound him to have the state above his party. He is right that the calls from Constitutional Avenue every now and then is proving hindrance to his usual services to the nation of 180 million, whom have been guaranteed electricity, justice, economical well being, prosperity and above all dignity in his stint. Don’t they consider that he as the unanimously elected Premier has to spare time for his allies, who no wonder may belong to Q, MQM or ANP but stands as a vital signature for this blessed “Rule of the Prized” upon us. By him being occupied by the sermons, how can he guide his allies to continue the glory gained by the Railways, Law and Order guaranteed in Karachi and Treasure Vaults booming in Gujarat…………..truly it’s a bit harsh to question this overwhelming basket of credentials my Premier has earned in a period of 48 months. And the letter, well now again it’s about under establishing and wrong estimation of his duties and obligation toward his masses. With economy booming, industries making head way night and day and FDI queuing for a chance to invest in this ideal business hub, how can he spare time and energy to pursue some outstanding $60 million or so……………….a reality no wonder every one especially boys doing justice ignored. Enough of my laughter’s, it is time to unveil my distress as well. In short, “ My Lord, Why this Doctrine of Tareekh pe Tareekh (hearing after Hearing)”. If a half boiled freaky brain of mine sees all this, what has ties you…………….the repercussions, the card or martyr dilemma, My Lord this “Justice Delayed” has awarded injustice to the masses, every one of them each passing second. We breath in fear, we live in awe and we foresee misery. This season of change from authoritarian to Public voice (Post 2008) has stripped us of every bit that we had, of prosperity, dreams, expectations and aspirations. The corrosion, aided by catalyst like corruption, injustice, deceit, ethnicity, lawlessness, internal turmoil and distrustful loyalties to the mother land is playing its part, unless someone designated to the role of watch over intervenes and brings the house in order. Enough of this nonsense, a mockery imposed on ourselves by us, a tainted face decorated by our deeds. What has remained a restrain must now be replaced with a resolve, a firm stand on the principles and guidelines which guarantee our existence, sovereignty and identity. We want it, and the time calls for it. Otherwise “Rome was burning” is all we would or those after us will recall of this dark night…………………………………… May Allah Bless and Protect Pakistan, Ameen!!!!!

Fault line: The Question of Syria and Iran

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

Bells have started ringing, only awaited is the name they would call. The turn of the century has seen much, and it isn’t hard to asses that more is coming our way. If “Misbalance of Power” in Europe 100 years back was paving way for the War of all Wars (1st WW 1914-19), it seems that the same peccadillo is in repetition, sadly. One learns so much from history, but the biggest lesson remains that folly is to the aggressor as oppressions is to the dumb. If 20th century empires went for the greatest war in desperation of their eroding glory, the 21st century dominators are all set to clash for greed, self erected ideals, refusal to coexist and limitation to tolerance. What started as a day of terror in 2001 (9/11) has ended up exposing the real face of state terror, where might stays right and difference gets resolved by “Daisy Cutters or Hell Fire Missiles”.

                                                 The “War on Terror” initiated against non-state, little known or heard band of fundamentalist called Al-Qaeda has proved a rope, which the playmakers from Tel Aviv to Jeddah are slowly, painfully and thoughtfully tightening against their appropriate “Rogue States”. The actors are more than plentiful, so is the case with supposed objectives but somehow it seems that the stakes have been set without a contingency or exit plan. What started as G.W.Bush Jr obsession has somehow transformed itself into Obama’s odyssey. The call for Syria and Iran has started, or if I correct myself cannons have been positioned, what remains is the alignment of firing trajectory. General Assembly or Security Council, less will it matter once the Majesty and his Musketeers have rolled onto the field. The question which we have to ask is simple, will the Allies provoke the Axis or it will be delayed for a later but sure day. China and Russia have shown a joint front with their veto, a symbolic defiance up till now but there future course will be decided by the stakes this newly devised adventure carries. Americans have brought home the biggest fear which atleast one community had in their mind while they shared with them the sorrows of 9/11, a war package garnished against extremist Islam in the ploy of accommodating its precious yet obnoxious ally. But the Majesty has a catch in this gesture as well, pushing its long standing ideological foes in Moscow and Beijing to the edge of their patience, in a view of either bringing this cold and reformed enmity into the open or making sure that deep in their heart they accept that like a paralyzed soul, they die themselves of the realization that the mismatch of armory, riches and resolve is too much for them to disagree, and bring themselves to submission as the last act.

                                                      The question is not of Human Rights (Syria) or a holy possession in unholy hands (Iran Nuclear Capability), but it’s more of the long standing maxim of strength that when you have it, let the sword settle the score whether evil or noble. Syria as such won’t be a powder keg as compared to Iran, but in case the game plan starts rolling it’s important to break down what it may have for all of us. With well tamed Media showing modern “Concentration Camp” scenario in Damascus and suburb, a swift action by Majesty’s brigade will be enough to set Assad’s dominos falling. Ideally as per Libya, streets will be seen illuminating with liberated crowds, overwhelmed at newly found grace and prosperity which resulted through bombs from aliens on there’s own, really the time changes so does the tradition. Followed will be a civilized yet shadowy setup, call it transitional which will be dancing to the opera for who knows when. Tehran won’t be different in terms of operation “D-Day” for the majesty, though the projection will be as if a serpent, with venom in every strike has been brought under grip after tremendous heroics. Confused; well track back to “Desert Storm” adventure against Saddam. It seemed to the world as if Saddam with his Republican Guards will be marching in Munich shortly when “Scuds” started blasting, only to realize that it was nothing more than “Dutch Courage”. Same will be the case with Iran, unlike Syria they will be allowed to resist a bit, few strikes on and off before the final push to take away everything they had from invincibility to resolute stance. If I failed to mention Hamas and Hezbollah, just have a dose that their action if any will pave the way for Majesty to expand his victorious march a bit further, let it be Beirut or Gaza.

                                       All well that ends well for Majesty in case of calculated or imaginable perceptions. But as the wise before Majesty found, misperception is the final nail on every tall claim. What if Damascus and Tehran proves to be the fault line Huntington feared, a vague but accepted divide which crossed will have no return, a clash that will see no reality or religion. What if the community earlier mentioned, the presumed drugged masses from Ayubi and Zangi, woke to the reality of the royalties, who have given them the riches of black gold but at the expense of their pride and faith. The well executed tremor at Syria and Damascus from Majesty gives way to the feared jolt in Arabia, the real Arab Spring in place of Obama’s spring. Yes, this can be the case where all norms of international decorum will be taken aside by the will of the hearts, silent for centuries.

                                    A fault line it is and can well be the start of the feared blood line. Take another case, the one which features Allies pitted against the Axis. What if Beijing and Moscow long way back had chalked out Tehran as there last line of defense, a defense from encirclement that pains by the day and gives fear at nights, of enemy’s boots in the backyard or the previous playing field now turned the battle field. The same which took Putin to war in Georgia and gave way to Abkhazia and South Ossetia or what caught General Mc Arthur and his men at Yallu River (Korea 1950). Russia has shown so much defiance when it comes to missile shield in Europe, the more they have exhibited when it has come to the riches Majesty desired in and around Caspian. An entry into Iran will be the direct pathway to the treasured lake or sea of unknown, the one Majesty couldn’t pull through Georgia or Afghanistan until recently. It’s a tight rope that we travel in political world, but its even tighter when it comes to assessing the catch of the deeds committed in the name of RealPolitik or Ideological realignment. Majesty is all set to start the show, a show which has all the twists except the climax which was never thought, penned down or calculated………………………………….Lets brace ourselves!!!!

MEMO Phobia Strikes Team Gillani…………………………………………………..

The blue eyed passenger hasn’t set his feet on Pakistani soil, but it seems that the foundations of many sky scrapers (Political) have started rattling. It takes no out of this world wisdom to sum up team Gillani and Zardari policy of dealing with this controversy and Mr Mansoor Ijaz (MI) as one based on absolute panic and fear. MI was no one, nor any claim associated with him carried mass but not anymore.

From the day MI made his claim public through an article written in Financial Times, the government has been on the wrong side. The 1^st half of their policy can be tagged as “Cold Shoulder”. In layman terms, it’s when an approaching sand storm is faced by an ostrich by digging its face inside the sand, assuming that the storm will pass by. Of course it passes but buries the ostrich deep into the soil itself. MEMOGATE (MG) never existed; MI is a Western agent and so on was the part of this denial. To be precise, it took over a month before official statement was issued signifying that his Highness has spared time to look into MG. Media screens and political speeches from opposition had for long placed this issue on hot wire, only those responsible were waiting for the unknown.

The 2^nd half of the policy on MG is purely based on retreat and appeasement. With Admiral Mullen office accepting the existence of MG, the executives reluctantly pulled the cord which at this stage could only do one thing, and that was the unveiling of “Pandora Box”. A tug of war had started with back to back meeting between boys in uniform from Rawalpindi and the executives from Islamabad. The hush up saw former Ambassador Haqqani called back, followed by his resignation after the evidence was provided by DG ISI. It was already late as the Supreme Court has taken things into its own hands, in light of the revelations made by MI and the leaked contents of MEMO. The last opportunity went begging with government choosing to contradict the version of its own security apparatus, regarding the MEMO. Haqqani, a resident of President and later PM House with the aid of his counsel presented an affidavit from Gen James Jones to counter the replies submitted by COAS Kayani and DG ISI Pasha regarding the authenticity of the MEMO, which in my perception acted as the last nail in the CBM/ Reconciliation coffin between the military and the executives. CJ’s reply that for the court the words of our own COAS sums up all was enough, and that’s exactly what rationality demanded. From then onward all efforts on MG from the elected representatives have meant little to those concerned. The parliamentary commission in haste even failed, as all eyes are set on Supreme Court to decide the fate of all linked with this episode.

The 3^rd phase, the one we are experiencing now is of sheer panic and unproductive defiance. The PM on floor of the parliament inquiring that after an year or so he has a question in mind, that how can OBL live a stone throw from a military cantonment without someone’s consent was a mockery of the entire state, followed by his claim in front of Chinese media that replies submitted to SC from COAS and DG ISI were unconstitutional, at a time when COAS was himself in Beijing. Of course this new found defiance proved nothing less than a flare in a dark night, which is bound to extinguish in a minute or so. But these sorts of act widened the gulf between military and civilian leadership so much that ISPR, the media wing of military for the 1^st time went public to criticize and repel the claims made by the PM. Of course, the sand has well passed the neck of the ostrich and now all it remains is the wrap up.

I believe all of you have gone through media screens flashing with statements from Interior Minister Rehman Malik and his colleague’s onslaught on MI. Mr Malik has been passing floaters like MI can be arrested, placed on ECL, might be tried for treason and so on…………………impressive. This is all part of the 3^rd phase I have tagged as the policy of sheer panic. It resembles a boxing game when two boxers are after each other’s head. One of them has taken enough, though his ego makes him stand after every count, though trembling. The coach, knowing well his boy’s ability finally throws in the towel to call off the day……………………………it’s a defeat but the defeated boxer always tells his buddies that I could have knocked my opponent out but my coach saved his day. This rhetoric from Mr Malik and his team have in my view given the victory card to MI before he has even appeared before the honorable judges, designated to verify his claim. His lawyer has occupied the center stage with clear signs that his client has all the reason not to step into Pakistan, in light of the threats and repercussions coming from the ruling party. This has been a height of immaturity from the ruling cadre………….or I should say they have by their acts proved to be the catalyst in MG end game. What remained a perception has now been sounded by MI and his team, that the government and its machinery is all out to distort the evidence he has with himself, once he arrives in Islamabad. To take it even further, the distrust is so much that AG has been reminded once again that MI security should be looked after by the armed forces solely, with interior ministry itself becoming a party in the case, thanks to the statements expressed lately.

Even if MI decides to call off his trip as he did earlier, his attendance can be made possible via video link. Is Mr Malik doing it on his own will be the question in every mind. The game has been played without any rules right from the start. So now the blame game has also gone further from Mr Malik. MI has last night through a press release claimed that he has even evidence against Interior Minister along with one linking top cadre to MG. The boss consent for MG till date was a subject not highlighted, but now it seems very hard to delink this aspect. The next 48 hours leading to the proceeding will have a lot of twists and turns, to open up a layman mind like mine and yours.

The President, I honestly expected would have lead from the front the day his name intentionally or unintentionally was dragged into MG. He would have told Mr Malik to back off, and submitted before the court that as this matter relates to national security, the top office and Supreme Commander will leave no stone unturned to solve this. An official request to RIM (Canada) would have been made to obtain every bit of data, and in case of their non compliance BB service would have been suspended. On his behalf, Mr MI would have been invited to present his case before the court so that the real conspiracy becomes clear. Having said this…………………………………….all these steps count when MG is to be fairly and transparently sorted out, else in the other case the three phases explained above play their part…………………………….whether for good or for bad will be decided later!!!!!!!!

Judicial Tsunami Heading for Isloo……………….

2012 has hardly kicked off, but the outcome can be sketched from the onset even then.  If PTI’s Tsunami and “Memo-Gate” has rocked the political thrones toward the end of 2011, it seems that Supreme Court is all set to tarnish the smoke screen and policy of “Eyes Sideways” from the cases in cold storage. Today’s verdict might be sketchy in term of execution, but between the lines the honorable judiciary has set forward its theme.

The “Musical Chair” between Judiciary and Executive is on for the last 3 years or so, with one side showing its resolve to deliver what they are meant to (justice) while the latter inventing ever new tricks to dodge the onslaught in the face of this action. What remained a story of intention somehow turned into determination with President Zardari’s recent interview to Geo News. It was intended to be a milestone from Presidency to shrug of its label of doing politics from behind the walls, but somehow in less than a week of its going on air, it has gathered the sight of the watchful eyes. Mr President was highly confident when it came to the response, but it holds true that he somehow lost his way during the course of interview. His response made it mandatory on a common viewer to assess whether the interviewee was conducting himself as the top most office bearer of the state, or else a political entity merged into the top office. His response, especially regarding NRO that it was a party decision that letter won’t be written during the present setup, was enough to make the already looming storm, burst. And so it did with today’s verdict.

The court has left some question marks, but where it has put down its foot the result  are beyond anyone’s expectation. In black and white fingers have not only been raised, but directed to the top offices, including the President and the Premier with uncertainties over there honesty, loyalties and intentions. Larger bench or the 6 options put forward is a different aspect, SC has placed the label of unfaithfulness to the oath and loyalty to personal deeds rather than the constitution and the state.

The mood in Islamabad is highly unpleasant today, though snow over Margalla had all the strength to do the opposite. It holds true that “Love and war is the outcome of misperception”. The executives not only misperceived, but underestimated the building storm over them, and it won’t be wrong to say that it’s “Eye” is yet to strike the shores.

Let me recall that we have NRO implementation case on the table today, whereas MEMOGATE is also on the menu. Mr Ijaz with his arrival will unleash the Pandora box hardly calculated. Forensic experts might be fired last night, but the court won’t buy this excuse. Even if this wasn’t enough, PM’s interview to Chinese Television during the presence of COAS Kayani in Beijing has not been welcomed at all. The rivalry which was overt but behind curtain has been revealed. Is it a signal that things have moved beyond repair between the boys in uniform and the ruling executives?……………… Obviously affirmative!

The planned political martyrdom of the government is moving closer to the edge, with all the signs of a final but fatal showdown. The victor is premature to be announced, but it is confirmed to all and sundry that 180 million Pakistanis are heading for the roller coaster ride on a cut throat island, rather than the one running in Disney Land!!!!!