My Lord: I A “Royal Convict”

 I did my best all the way, but today’s nucleus of media screen has made two expressions permanent on my face, one of laughter and the other of distress. The foremost expression is for my Democratically, unanimously elected PM, dedicated to his innocence. I mean if merit, morality and words of the books (Constitution) are set aside, he once and for all qualifies as the best among all we had. See, that’s why I say his reply to the Honorable Court (SC) today is self explanatory of my assumptions and calculations. My PM’s stance is clear that he won’t be a “Laghari” whose hidden instincts (I stop short of conscience) made him betray his party, though no one ever considered that his role (Designation) at that time bound him to have the state above his party. He is right that the calls from Constitutional Avenue every now and then is proving hindrance to his usual services to the nation of 180 million, whom have been guaranteed electricity, justice, economical well being, prosperity and above all dignity in his stint. Don’t they consider that he as the unanimously elected Premier has to spare time for his allies, who no wonder may belong to Q, MQM or ANP but stands as a vital signature for this blessed “Rule of the Prized” upon us. By him being occupied by the sermons, how can he guide his allies to continue the glory gained by the Railways, Law and Order guaranteed in Karachi and Treasure Vaults booming in Gujarat…………..truly it’s a bit harsh to question this overwhelming basket of credentials my Premier has earned in a period of 48 months. And the letter, well now again it’s about under establishing and wrong estimation of his duties and obligation toward his masses. With economy booming, industries making head way night and day and FDI queuing for a chance to invest in this ideal business hub, how can he spare time and energy to pursue some outstanding $60 million or so……………….a reality no wonder every one especially boys doing justice ignored. Enough of my laughter’s, it is time to unveil my distress as well. In short, “ My Lord, Why this Doctrine of Tareekh pe Tareekh (hearing after Hearing)”. If a half boiled freaky brain of mine sees all this, what has ties you…………….the repercussions, the card or martyr dilemma, My Lord this “Justice Delayed” has awarded injustice to the masses, every one of them each passing second. We breath in fear, we live in awe and we foresee misery. This season of change from authoritarian to Public voice (Post 2008) has stripped us of every bit that we had, of prosperity, dreams, expectations and aspirations. The corrosion, aided by catalyst like corruption, injustice, deceit, ethnicity, lawlessness, internal turmoil and distrustful loyalties to the mother land is playing its part, unless someone designated to the role of watch over intervenes and brings the house in order. Enough of this nonsense, a mockery imposed on ourselves by us, a tainted face decorated by our deeds. What has remained a restrain must now be replaced with a resolve, a firm stand on the principles and guidelines which guarantee our existence, sovereignty and identity. We want it, and the time calls for it. Otherwise “Rome was burning” is all we would or those after us will recall of this dark night…………………………………… May Allah Bless and Protect Pakistan, Ameen!!!!!

Fault line: The Question of Syria and Iran

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Bells have started ringing, only awaited is the name they would call. The turn of the century has seen much, and it isn’t hard to asses that more is coming our way. If “Misbalance of Power” in Europe 100 years back was paving way for the War of all Wars (1st WW 1914-19), it seems that the same peccadillo is in repetition, sadly. One learns so much from history, but the biggest lesson remains that folly is to the aggressor as oppressions is to the dumb. If 20th century empires went for the greatest war in desperation of their eroding glory, the 21st century dominators are all set to clash for greed, self erected ideals, refusal to coexist and limitation to tolerance. What started as a day of terror in 2001 (9/11) has ended up exposing the real face of state terror, where might stays right and difference gets resolved by “Daisy Cutters or Hell Fire Missiles”.

                                                 The “War on Terror” initiated against non-state, little known or heard band of fundamentalist called Al-Qaeda has proved a rope, which the playmakers from Tel Aviv to Jeddah are slowly, painfully and thoughtfully tightening against their appropriate “Rogue States”. The actors are more than plentiful, so is the case with supposed objectives but somehow it seems that the stakes have been set without a contingency or exit plan. What started as G.W.Bush Jr obsession has somehow transformed itself into Obama’s odyssey. The call for Syria and Iran has started, or if I correct myself cannons have been positioned, what remains is the alignment of firing trajectory. General Assembly or Security Council, less will it matter once the Majesty and his Musketeers have rolled onto the field. The question which we have to ask is simple, will the Allies provoke the Axis or it will be delayed for a later but sure day. China and Russia have shown a joint front with their veto, a symbolic defiance up till now but there future course will be decided by the stakes this newly devised adventure carries. Americans have brought home the biggest fear which atleast one community had in their mind while they shared with them the sorrows of 9/11, a war package garnished against extremist Islam in the ploy of accommodating its precious yet obnoxious ally. But the Majesty has a catch in this gesture as well, pushing its long standing ideological foes in Moscow and Beijing to the edge of their patience, in a view of either bringing this cold and reformed enmity into the open or making sure that deep in their heart they accept that like a paralyzed soul, they die themselves of the realization that the mismatch of armory, riches and resolve is too much for them to disagree, and bring themselves to submission as the last act.

                                                      The question is not of Human Rights (Syria) or a holy possession in unholy hands (Iran Nuclear Capability), but it’s more of the long standing maxim of strength that when you have it, let the sword settle the score whether evil or noble. Syria as such won’t be a powder keg as compared to Iran, but in case the game plan starts rolling it’s important to break down what it may have for all of us. With well tamed Media showing modern “Concentration Camp” scenario in Damascus and suburb, a swift action by Majesty’s brigade will be enough to set Assad’s dominos falling. Ideally as per Libya, streets will be seen illuminating with liberated crowds, overwhelmed at newly found grace and prosperity which resulted through bombs from aliens on there’s own, really the time changes so does the tradition. Followed will be a civilized yet shadowy setup, call it transitional which will be dancing to the opera for who knows when. Tehran won’t be different in terms of operation “D-Day” for the majesty, though the projection will be as if a serpent, with venom in every strike has been brought under grip after tremendous heroics. Confused; well track back to “Desert Storm” adventure against Saddam. It seemed to the world as if Saddam with his Republican Guards will be marching in Munich shortly when “Scuds” started blasting, only to realize that it was nothing more than “Dutch Courage”. Same will be the case with Iran, unlike Syria they will be allowed to resist a bit, few strikes on and off before the final push to take away everything they had from invincibility to resolute stance. If I failed to mention Hamas and Hezbollah, just have a dose that their action if any will pave the way for Majesty to expand his victorious march a bit further, let it be Beirut or Gaza.

                                       All well that ends well for Majesty in case of calculated or imaginable perceptions. But as the wise before Majesty found, misperception is the final nail on every tall claim. What if Damascus and Tehran proves to be the fault line Huntington feared, a vague but accepted divide which crossed will have no return, a clash that will see no reality or religion. What if the community earlier mentioned, the presumed drugged masses from Ayubi and Zangi, woke to the reality of the royalties, who have given them the riches of black gold but at the expense of their pride and faith. The well executed tremor at Syria and Damascus from Majesty gives way to the feared jolt in Arabia, the real Arab Spring in place of Obama’s spring. Yes, this can be the case where all norms of international decorum will be taken aside by the will of the hearts, silent for centuries.

                                    A fault line it is and can well be the start of the feared blood line. Take another case, the one which features Allies pitted against the Axis. What if Beijing and Moscow long way back had chalked out Tehran as there last line of defense, a defense from encirclement that pains by the day and gives fear at nights, of enemy’s boots in the backyard or the previous playing field now turned the battle field. The same which took Putin to war in Georgia and gave way to Abkhazia and South Ossetia or what caught General Mc Arthur and his men at Yallu River (Korea 1950). Russia has shown so much defiance when it comes to missile shield in Europe, the more they have exhibited when it has come to the riches Majesty desired in and around Caspian. An entry into Iran will be the direct pathway to the treasured lake or sea of unknown, the one Majesty couldn’t pull through Georgia or Afghanistan until recently. It’s a tight rope that we travel in political world, but its even tighter when it comes to assessing the catch of the deeds committed in the name of RealPolitik or Ideological realignment. Majesty is all set to start the show, a show which has all the twists except the climax which was never thought, penned down or calculated………………………………….Lets brace ourselves!!!!

MEMO Phobia Strikes Team Gillani…………………………………………………..

The blue eyed passenger hasn’t set his feet on Pakistani soil, but it seems that the foundations of many sky scrapers (Political) have started rattling. It takes no out of this world wisdom to sum up team Gillani and Zardari policy of dealing with this controversy and Mr Mansoor Ijaz (MI) as one based on absolute panic and fear. MI was no one, nor any claim associated with him carried mass but not anymore.

From the day MI made his claim public through an article written in Financial Times, the government has been on the wrong side. The 1^st half of their policy can be tagged as “Cold Shoulder”. In layman terms, it’s when an approaching sand storm is faced by an ostrich by digging its face inside the sand, assuming that the storm will pass by. Of course it passes but buries the ostrich deep into the soil itself. MEMOGATE (MG) never existed; MI is a Western agent and so on was the part of this denial. To be precise, it took over a month before official statement was issued signifying that his Highness has spared time to look into MG. Media screens and political speeches from opposition had for long placed this issue on hot wire, only those responsible were waiting for the unknown.

The 2^nd half of the policy on MG is purely based on retreat and appeasement. With Admiral Mullen office accepting the existence of MG, the executives reluctantly pulled the cord which at this stage could only do one thing, and that was the unveiling of “Pandora Box”. A tug of war had started with back to back meeting between boys in uniform from Rawalpindi and the executives from Islamabad. The hush up saw former Ambassador Haqqani called back, followed by his resignation after the evidence was provided by DG ISI. It was already late as the Supreme Court has taken things into its own hands, in light of the revelations made by MI and the leaked contents of MEMO. The last opportunity went begging with government choosing to contradict the version of its own security apparatus, regarding the MEMO. Haqqani, a resident of President and later PM House with the aid of his counsel presented an affidavit from Gen James Jones to counter the replies submitted by COAS Kayani and DG ISI Pasha regarding the authenticity of the MEMO, which in my perception acted as the last nail in the CBM/ Reconciliation coffin between the military and the executives. CJ’s reply that for the court the words of our own COAS sums up all was enough, and that’s exactly what rationality demanded. From then onward all efforts on MG from the elected representatives have meant little to those concerned. The parliamentary commission in haste even failed, as all eyes are set on Supreme Court to decide the fate of all linked with this episode.

The 3^rd phase, the one we are experiencing now is of sheer panic and unproductive defiance. The PM on floor of the parliament inquiring that after an year or so he has a question in mind, that how can OBL live a stone throw from a military cantonment without someone’s consent was a mockery of the entire state, followed by his claim in front of Chinese media that replies submitted to SC from COAS and DG ISI were unconstitutional, at a time when COAS was himself in Beijing. Of course this new found defiance proved nothing less than a flare in a dark night, which is bound to extinguish in a minute or so. But these sorts of act widened the gulf between military and civilian leadership so much that ISPR, the media wing of military for the 1^st time went public to criticize and repel the claims made by the PM. Of course, the sand has well passed the neck of the ostrich and now all it remains is the wrap up.

I believe all of you have gone through media screens flashing with statements from Interior Minister Rehman Malik and his colleague’s onslaught on MI. Mr Malik has been passing floaters like MI can be arrested, placed on ECL, might be tried for treason and so on…………………impressive. This is all part of the 3^rd phase I have tagged as the policy of sheer panic. It resembles a boxing game when two boxers are after each other’s head. One of them has taken enough, though his ego makes him stand after every count, though trembling. The coach, knowing well his boy’s ability finally throws in the towel to call off the day……………………………it’s a defeat but the defeated boxer always tells his buddies that I could have knocked my opponent out but my coach saved his day. This rhetoric from Mr Malik and his team have in my view given the victory card to MI before he has even appeared before the honorable judges, designated to verify his claim. His lawyer has occupied the center stage with clear signs that his client has all the reason not to step into Pakistan, in light of the threats and repercussions coming from the ruling party. This has been a height of immaturity from the ruling cadre………….or I should say they have by their acts proved to be the catalyst in MG end game. What remained a perception has now been sounded by MI and his team, that the government and its machinery is all out to distort the evidence he has with himself, once he arrives in Islamabad. To take it even further, the distrust is so much that AG has been reminded once again that MI security should be looked after by the armed forces solely, with interior ministry itself becoming a party in the case, thanks to the statements expressed lately.

Even if MI decides to call off his trip as he did earlier, his attendance can be made possible via video link. Is Mr Malik doing it on his own will be the question in every mind. The game has been played without any rules right from the start. So now the blame game has also gone further from Mr Malik. MI has last night through a press release claimed that he has even evidence against Interior Minister along with one linking top cadre to MG. The boss consent for MG till date was a subject not highlighted, but now it seems very hard to delink this aspect. The next 48 hours leading to the proceeding will have a lot of twists and turns, to open up a layman mind like mine and yours.

The President, I honestly expected would have lead from the front the day his name intentionally or unintentionally was dragged into MG. He would have told Mr Malik to back off, and submitted before the court that as this matter relates to national security, the top office and Supreme Commander will leave no stone unturned to solve this. An official request to RIM (Canada) would have been made to obtain every bit of data, and in case of their non compliance BB service would have been suspended. On his behalf, Mr MI would have been invited to present his case before the court so that the real conspiracy becomes clear. Having said this…………………………………….all these steps count when MG is to be fairly and transparently sorted out, else in the other case the three phases explained above play their part…………………………….whether for good or for bad will be decided later!!!!!!!!

Judicial Tsunami Heading for Isloo……………….

2012 has hardly kicked off, but the outcome can be sketched from the onset even then.  If PTI’s Tsunami and “Memo-Gate” has rocked the political thrones toward the end of 2011, it seems that Supreme Court is all set to tarnish the smoke screen and policy of “Eyes Sideways” from the cases in cold storage. Today’s verdict might be sketchy in term of execution, but between the lines the honorable judiciary has set forward its theme.

The “Musical Chair” between Judiciary and Executive is on for the last 3 years or so, with one side showing its resolve to deliver what they are meant to (justice) while the latter inventing ever new tricks to dodge the onslaught in the face of this action. What remained a story of intention somehow turned into determination with President Zardari’s recent interview to Geo News. It was intended to be a milestone from Presidency to shrug of its label of doing politics from behind the walls, but somehow in less than a week of its going on air, it has gathered the sight of the watchful eyes. Mr President was highly confident when it came to the response, but it holds true that he somehow lost his way during the course of interview. His response made it mandatory on a common viewer to assess whether the interviewee was conducting himself as the top most office bearer of the state, or else a political entity merged into the top office. His response, especially regarding NRO that it was a party decision that letter won’t be written during the present setup, was enough to make the already looming storm, burst. And so it did with today’s verdict.

The court has left some question marks, but where it has put down its foot the result  are beyond anyone’s expectation. In black and white fingers have not only been raised, but directed to the top offices, including the President and the Premier with uncertainties over there honesty, loyalties and intentions. Larger bench or the 6 options put forward is a different aspect, SC has placed the label of unfaithfulness to the oath and loyalty to personal deeds rather than the constitution and the state.

The mood in Islamabad is highly unpleasant today, though snow over Margalla had all the strength to do the opposite. It holds true that “Love and war is the outcome of misperception”. The executives not only misperceived, but underestimated the building storm over them, and it won’t be wrong to say that it’s “Eye” is yet to strike the shores.

Let me recall that we have NRO implementation case on the table today, whereas MEMOGATE is also on the menu. Mr Ijaz with his arrival will unleash the Pandora box hardly calculated. Forensic experts might be fired last night, but the court won’t buy this excuse. Even if this wasn’t enough, PM’s interview to Chinese Television during the presence of COAS Kayani in Beijing has not been welcomed at all. The rivalry which was overt but behind curtain has been revealed. Is it a signal that things have moved beyond repair between the boys in uniform and the ruling executives?……………… Obviously affirmative!

The planned political martyrdom of the government is moving closer to the edge, with all the signs of a final but fatal showdown. The victor is premature to be announced, but it is confirmed to all and sundry that 180 million Pakistanis are heading for the roller coaster ride on a cut throat island, rather than the one running in Disney Land!!!!!

Walking Dead…………………Living Betrayed!

Long ago read somewhere that laughter’s and happiness have long ceased to exist in human affairs, except for those who have mastered the art of disguising their sorrows into smiles. This simply holds true for Pakistan, and its 180 million Pakistanis in 2011. It’s a known fact that one can defend an external aggressor by hook or by crook, but once the foe stands with you arms in arms, even a wall of steel proves to be the one of sand.

The last 3 years or so, precisely with the new dawn of self rule and democracy in Pakistan have taken us back to the times where we unarguably stood after 1971. Politics and politicians have in one way or the other proven to be the termite, which is spearheading the decay of the very foundation which has housed them. Let it be Railway, PIA, Steel Mill, Rental Power or OGDCL…………..every single institute has been set on fire. If I exaggerate, let it be my limitation but I have been compelled to state that democracy and popular will has been strangled, choked and humiliated by those who call themselves to be the voice of our…………………………no they cannot be from us and they will never be one of us. The betrayal has been of such extent that I am forced to say that there is not a clash of interest, but rather a crash of interest.

I seem psychotic for being so unprofessional and harsh in my selection of words, but still feel that my conscience has kept me far away from expressing my heart out. An Executive which cannot ensure law and order and provision of basic necessities to the masses has no right to stay or claim his supremacy, let it be President Mugabe of Zimbabwe / Rhodesia or Yousaf Raza Gillani of Pakistan.  180 million nation is living on others mercy with no relief in sight while these visionaries are seen claiming success and praising their performance. No electricity, gas or food for us while President revealed

“We have delivered 80% of our mandate……………and we will make it 100”

Even a sick mind would jump to the conclusion that another 20% in this direction will guarantee every Pakistani a free stay in hell……………………………and I expect that unlike Hajj quota scandal, there won’t be any one gifting a grand cruiser for the well executed rip-off.  The energy crisis remains the most vital element which has brought us to our knees, but  it is crystal clear that it’s our “crisis phobia” which portrays this picture, else as per our President version yesterday in a TV interview “All Iz Wellll ”.

If we try to broaden the spectrum of this argument, somehow the culprit moves from mis-governance intentional mis-governance, and there remains no limit to the charge sheet of follies vs sins. Today where the entire world is holding its economical assets to themselves with the clouds of depression circling, Pakistan’s policy planners have watched silently the demise of its industrial back bone. From textile to SME, investors have fled to favorable location like Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia and so on. Patriotism of them is what kept them on this land so far, else business sense would have taken them overseas many years back. There flight is logical, but what remains illogical is the fact that this closure and vacuum of industrial unit has left millions jobless across Pakistan, and especially in Punjab. Now as per the interview yesterday, I feel that it’s mine and your limited vision that we see it as a crisis, otherwise this is a long term policy to make talented labor free for a worldwide “Black Water” style army for carrying the flag of “Hail Democracy” across the frontiers…………………marvelous!

Now we should not make a fool out of ourselves by stating that we are suffering from an energy crisis in terms of CNG. Again an empty brain like me jumped to this conclusion after witnessing desperate masses standing in lines spread many kilometers, just to access a fuel which they can afford. I thought of many versions. Why the CNG proved such a burden when mad analyst among us shouted that it is consuming mere 8% of the total usage. Even in case we had developed the ill habit of using an indigenous and eco friendly fuel, where is the contingency plan in case we ran into shortages. If common mad had the sole buying power of obtaining it and commercial consumer had the will of exploiting high rates while running on CNG, why haven’t the latter been fined, banned or barred from using this fuel instead of letting the common man suffer.  If a crisis like this had brought the whole state to a standstill, why the priority never shifted to the day and night execution of project like Iran Pakistan pipeline, even if it required redirecting entire brigades of troops or governmental machinery? Having lost the debate I again referred to the interview of my President and found that his mentioned evolution has geared up. We always felt that the nation lacked patience and discipline. With the rise and going out of control, the CNG crisis has tamed the 180 million masses of how to stand 3 hours in lines to fill their tanks, and in this manner  embark on a journey of patience and discipline……………………………visionary!!!!

Now let’s come to provincial grievances and governance issues. With everything hanging on the swing and the entire setup on the verge of collapse in case Supreme Court goes an extra mile in setting the issues straight, the Prime Minister has found no other problem but that of creating Southern Punjab……………………………Yes, don’t you get it this whole fiasco is the result of not giving them the due right. It is their witchcraft which has run everything dry whether we take Railways, PIA, Gas reserves or fading FDI………………………..so for this reason lets speed up the breakup of Punjab into uncountable pieces so that “Divide and Rule” will settle everything. Of course you and me were misinformed about the grievances of Baluchistan, Sindh and KPK. This is how nations face crisis upfront by burying their heads in sand, so that the desert storm passes by…………………………fabulous!!!!!!

In short, let your fate rest on the shoulders of a few who can see what we 180 million Pakistanis couldn’t………………….and stop breeding the conscience inside us…………………………………..

May Allah Save Pakistan……………………………………………

2011 in review

The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2011 annual report for this blog.

Here’s an excerpt:

A New York City subway train holds 1,200 people. This blog was viewed about 5,800 times in 2011. If it were a NYC subway train, it would take about 5 trips to carry that many people.

Click here to see the complete report.

Happy New Year

TRUTH DENIED wishes a very blessed and prosperous new year to all its readers,

May 2012 fulfill all your dreams and ambition, and shower blessings upon Pakistan and its inhabitants,

prayers for peace around the globe…………Ameen

“Memo Gate” set to break every one’s Gait………………………………

 

The twists and turn on memo issue seems to be far from over. With every passing day the revelations, counter revelations as well as stake holders of this issue are not only increasing, but their magnitude has become alarming. With Pakistan’s opposition under Mian Nawaz taking this matter to supreme court, it seems that this memo has become an unguided torpedo with everyone running for cover. To add more fuel to the already raging fire, the absence of PPP top man and Pakistan’s President has sent the entire machinery in a state of panic. Before moving any further on this issue I must wish the President best of health and an early return back home as well as his response to the issue.

                The hasty press conferences (Mr Babar Awan) and changing arguments from the top executive (Mr Gillani) has made it crystal clear that the pace of events surrounding memo have somehow outpaced the executives and the establishment alike. The week promised to be full of surprises as Supreme Court’s deadline on submission of answers from the President, the state, ex Ambassador to US, Mr Mansoor Ijaz, COAS & DG ISI was to expire. Mr Haqqani and Mr Ijaz submitted their respective replies along with relevant material well before the deadline while COAS & DG ISI made wandering minds guessing with their replies on the eleventh hour. The case before its regular hearing has placed the entire 180 million masses on their toes. The Military leadership in their reply regarding memo have endorsed its existence  on the 1^st place as well have given their full consent to a full fledge inquiry into this matter, making it clear that they are in no mood of hiding this issue under the carpet, as seen earlier on numerous issues. The opposition on the other hand shares the same version, with its backing to judicial inquiry rather than the one conducted under the existing parliament. Now the interesting question which remains to be answered is that whether this orientation signals the judiciary, military and opposition on the same note versus the coalition holding power corridor?

                The executive in every possible manner have given their best to make this issue a “no man’s issue”, memo a piece of paper which somehow due to certain unexplained chemical and biological reaction evolved itself and out of this a certain invisible force is tightening the noose not only around their necks, but the entire system as well. Americans have been present in the center of this controversy right from day 1 and it seems that now their interest as well as stakes is growing even further. The massacre by our friends cum foe at Salala was whether a desperate act to pressurize the institutions following the memo eagerly or a flare to distract attention from this issue to save someone skin has in short backfired dramatically. Pakistan’s strong stance, for sure driven by raging public anger over the continued disgrace has left the ISAF/ Americans in Afghanistan virtually handicapped. It won’t be wrong to say that Pakistan’s blockade of their supplies for 23 days is nothing less than a night mare in term military strategy and warfare wisdom. It is like Americans have started singing with pain, though in a low pitch “Killing me softly”…………………………. and yes they are quite right in there calculations as well.

                If you want me to give you the whole equation about Pakistan military and civilian leadership in one sentence, my say will be that currently they have willingly or unwillingly “locked themselves in a Cold War which has all the potential to become burning hot very shortly”. To give you an insight into the gravity of this matter, Americans in the shape of General James Jones have jumped in to prove the memo as well as Mr Ijaz as fake, while the executor of this move have ignored that their own top security and military men have put their weight on the legitimacy and authenticity of the memo and Mr Ijaz on the other hand. Don’t you call it a head on collision?

                The President refraining once again from accepting superior court mandate in the shape of not answering or reminding us of immunity will definitely make the situation more destructive. It is quite clear that the fingers will clearly surpass Hussain Haqqani’s shoulder once the hearing gets under way and it should have been better if the government under Mr Gillani and Mr Zardari had opted for full cooperation to this issue, rather than watching from sideline. But this doesn’t make the existing government out of options even if all the post proceeding evidence has gone the other side. One effort has been made to link the entire process of democracy with this memo, as if discovery of its creator or creators will pack up the entire system. The other option will be to fight a battle to the end without accepting any truth unearthed by courts so that it will lead to a complete state of chaos. In both conditions, they stand totally wrong and the simple matter can be resolved with a transparent and free inquiry, unless this will unearth what they don’t want anyone to unearth at all.

                 On media screen the ruling party is seen thrashing Mr Ijaz as someone who has been anti ISI and Pakistan’s military from day 1 making him someone without any credibility. Well, to flip this scenario anti clockwise this also makes Mr Ijaz the most appropriate person to carry out  a task against the said institution if any one wishes it, any time.

                To sum it up, the military establishment has dug itself in with their statements in writing, making it certain that their will be no turning back from the reality of memo. The government in the above stated scenario’s is all out to go for the climax, unless they come out with a scapegoat to own this letter, which will be none other than Mr Haqqani.

For now, all we can do is to keep our fingers crossed!!

“Memo Gate” & the Greater Divide……………………..

It’s what the wise always warned about, best kept secrets from spouse or the house are bound to expire, and so it did. But strangely it’s not the secret itself but its architects who are being sought. Like a fuse attached to an explosive dump, the memo has ignited slowly but is undoubtedly travelling toward the larger catch……….BOOM!

I feel the only thing logical in this case has been ignored altogether, while every eye is looking for brain which drafted that single piece of paper or “memo”. The memo is a thought, a mindset, an ever stretching gulf of should and shouldn’t be between the most important institutions of Pakistan. In the global orientation we live today, state remains the primary actor and all hand rise in its favor. But the point of discussion which always end in vague is the “state’s interest or simply national interest”. The phenomena has nothing to do with 1^st world or the 3^rd world as we confuse ourselves, nor it has something to do with the system of governance. In case you disagree, land yourself in down town Manhattan and ask US citizen about their boys fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Half will say it’s in Uncle Sam national interest to fight 10,000 miles away to keep a threat away from mainland, while the rest of the half will argue that its all part of oil & war industry bonanza, where one group wants to reach for untapped reserves while the latter stakeholder wants to keep the boys fighting so that their dollars bills remain healthy.

The memo has more to do with this “divide”, this clash of ideas or the suspicion of one working for and one against this entity called Pakistan. As per the facts or fabricated facts we have today, a back channel door was opened by the then Ambassador to US Mr Haqqani via Mr Mansoor Ejaz, believed to be someone very well wired with US and European administration and defense high ups. The memo reached its destination, Admiral Mullen and then we have is all silence until Mr Ejaz opens the Pandora box through an article published in Financial Times. The stage was all set, and the usual denials from the Ambassador as well as top office in Pakistan of President Zardari made it obvious that something was about to happen. As predicted, a barrage of information and conspiracies flooded front pages and media screen about BBM sms and voice call record, top spy chief Gen Pasha’s trip to London, opposition all out war against team Zardari on this issue and finally, back to back “troika” meetings between PM, the President and the Army Chief. A brave and outspoken Haqqani had to give in once the evidence was placed although accounts suggest that he resisted till the end, but it’s clear that when boys in uniform move to this level, it is on solid grounds. His resignation has been translated into two possible aftershocks namely

1. The story starts from Haqqani and ends on …………. Even a 5^th grader knows it well that an Ambassador in diplomatic terms is just an extension of what is back at home, and can’t carry his own agenda on his own. In this case the resignation was the fuse holding back the spark from the explosives, and the rest is all yours to assume
2. The 2^nd version is that their remains a larger picture than the one we have in hand right now. The signal has been given from top stake holder, of course from outside Pakistan that it’s time for a change, no matter how it comes as part of a settlement bigger than what we are witnessing.

Earlier,  I pointed to the fact that memo itself is nothing in case its authentic, but it’s the distinction of what remains our national interest and what is not that matter in the minds, planning and executing our future. To be precise, the debate goes back to 9/11 with Musharaff extending an extra hand to the US in their conquest for Bin Laden and the Taliban. It remains a fact that the General had hardly any choice to maneuver himself, so there wasn’t a choice indeed. Once done, not Pakistanis but the Americans did the mistake of underestimating Afghan worth/ importance for Pakistan. Their bias policies ignited a renewed debate of redefining our interest but somehow it got ignored. Musharaff internal feuds landed him the title of “Double Agent” which in fact was his desperate alignment from there to our interest. Once he was out, the new democratic setup has also found it better to keep this question unanswered. Their inefficiency of the highest level is reflected in this memo, asking a foreign stick to maintain their existence in power corridor.

The memo did reach the destination, undoubtedly. From nowhere the “Haqqani Network” became the bone of contention, and above that Mullen a much trusted friend of Pakistani military leadership dropped “Mullen Bomb” when linked Pakistan Army and ISI to the direct killings of US troops in Afghanistan via Haqqanis. The response from GHQ, the marathon command meetings and the rock hard stand of Kayani took American by surprise, with additional input from Beijing putting its weight behind Islamabad. So those who believe the memo was neglected by Admiral Mullen could go through those weeks of tensions between Islamabad and Washington.

The decision on memo hangs on this question………………Is it a final push to align policies in a direction opposite to those followed from a decade or it’s a start of an overhaul of the entire system. Most probably it will be the 1^st. The divide between the nation and the holders of power corridor on Raymond Davis and May 2^nd issue was enough to make every one understand except to those it mattered. US has already bowed down in Afghanistan by chasing every shadow of Taliban, to secure their exit. The debate over this memo as a threat to democracy stands no ground, as its wise to replace democracy with government for the time being. This drama is not required to do all this. If they can break most secure channels of covert diplomacy, it wont be hard for them to aid in a few cases awaiting justice at Supreme Court. President Zardari should recognize his strength, which remains the masses. But from wikileaks till today, his impression remains the same that this slot to him and his party remains Uncle Sam’s blessing. Only a revert from this stance can play as his survival tool, nothing else as it seems for the time being………………………………………………

Khan’s “Vive la Revolution” VS Pakistan Political Spectrum

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It’s a reality, so no more hanky banky about the number of seats and whose “Jalsa” was bigger. Imran’s troops have really rattled the stage, and to put it right after a long lull there is something worth writing or talking. Khan has matured well with time, as politics in Pakistan is a tight rope to walk on. To be honest, it was a surprise to every eye, not because of the numbers but more because of the electrified masses even after the show has ended. Khan has been chrismatic and inspiring, the two attributes which are essential for any would be leader, and I will stop short of honesty and intent, as politics is a dirty trade and we have plenty of examples of successes with the omission of the last two attributes. So what really brought the crowds to the streets? And what can we derieve out of this bonanza remains a tough ask. Masses for sure are furstrated as well as deprived. Not years but decades of follies have made them loose their confidence in themselves, as well as the prevailing system. The doctorine of necessity, whether it be the ratification of undemocratic and illegitimate acts from boys in uniform to the political bargains on behalf of millions to prolong their reign by politicians has contributed the most to this hypothesis, shared by 200 million Pakistanis. Confusion and chaos are the catalyst to every change, and this is the same line Khan sahab has towed. Logically, the bells for election will be rung in 2013, but with our track record every thing can be possible in the battle field of politics. Khan heroics lately have been calcuated as the ouster of Sharif’s and PML-N from Punjab in the 1st phase, while the rest will come his way later in the episode. His “Jalsa” has been seen as the wake up call for team Nawaz, and rightly so. But in haste certain very important facts have been ignored by “Team Imran”, who did dance to the tunes some night back but this dance can very well become the one with partnership of the wolve.

Election 2013………….Reality Check

Reading between the lines is not only useful, but in case of prevailing condition it is highly essential. Whether you like him or not and no matter how many polls place him at the last scale of popularity, Mr Zardari holds all the aces for a triumph to his PPP as well as himself reelected as President for the 2nd time. The way he has maneuvered himself in the last 3 years has established him as the biggest political mind in Pakistan. His strength lies in Sindh, while his politics in Punjab, KPK and Baluchistan has placed him on the slot of “King Maker”. MQM remains the only threat to PPP in Sindh, and with them routed from local govt and Nazim crown, they will hardly score an upset. To be precise, the blood shed in Karachi throughout this setup has placed ANP and MQM on back foot, with the PPP walking tall (Let the Supreme Court verdict be an exception). In this scenario, team Zardari will retain Sindh no matter how much deprived the natives have become due to bad governance, curruption and ill planning. In KPK, ANP will have a tough time against the Islamist parties (MMA or no MMA) and the mendate can be split, but neither N nor PPP will gain tremendous success from this province. Khan has seen his following grow in KPK, but that cannot be translated into success. He himself can dominate the stage in KPK, but when it comes to party politics he is far away from gaining the ground in KPK. In any case, PPP will be the biggest benificiary from a split vote in KPK. Baluchistan, like before seems to be going no where, with the hidden hand as well as the tribal might playing the largets part. Again Imran wil have some success in Baluchistan, but this will be negligible. Religious parties and PML-N can extract some seats aswell, but all in all it will be the current faces which will dominate Baluchistan, or let it be PPP in the end as they have the power of attracting the winners (One can argue their methods for this subject).

Punjab remains the top prize, and undoubtedly it will be. Traditionally PML-N’s, even last time they were short of calling it their exclusive domain. With Imran’s entry, don’t consider N routed. They will secure a good share, but not the deciding one. The governance, if seen in comparision with the rest of 3 provinces and the center has been exceptional. Imran sahab and his platoon was very vocal on Dengue, and same was heard from PM Gillani a few weeks back. But putting it straight, Shahbaz after the initial follies played an exemplary role in the fight against it. Not from news but our own eyes he was seen standing on city squares, or late night in hospitals providing relief to the masses. The experts from Sri Lanka and their work in coordination with Punjab govt was superb. Having said this, it was a massive crisis and had it happened God forbid in any other province with present governance trend, the result would have been many times worse. The federal govt never came to the aid, nor did the crisis management groups or NGO’s. The surprise is natural, most Pakistanis never heard of it as well so its naïve to taunt PML-N Punjab to have stood up against it straight away. The rehab and relief in 2010 floods from Shahbaz was far better than in Sindh or KPK, and even the anti PML-N Southern Punjab masses admit this. But team Zardari and his allies in the shape of Q will deprieve N of this prize. With Q in center as allies, seats will go their way as well. Khan has set the stage on fire, but Punjab will have a split result. His heroics in polls will firmly establish PPP in the driving seat with another coalation setup, and Mr Zardari as President for the 2nd term.

What if we have early polls?

In a democratic manner, this theory is next to impossible. Team Zardari has got its cards right for holding its allies, whether it be the release of accused from billions of fraud money under their cap or lucrative Ministeries like railway……………..The opposition only has street power left to it. Friendly opposition is what we have heard so much for N, but to be straight they had no power to turn the tables. The only way they could hinder the sins was Judiciary, but by hook and crook and some time indemnity justicehas been delayed and denied in the most convincing manner. N has the resolve and reasons to go all out against the setup, and hints are coming from all square that they are going for their final push. The two other players remain Imran’s PTI and Munawar’s JI. Combined, they can stun the setup and bring the govt to its knees, but again it requires a lot of bitter realities to be removed. Imran’s PTI is novice as well as shaky. To say it clearly, election in 2013 will suit him that any one else along with PPP. This 1 ½ year or so will make him organize his party, float the tickets, make more hue and cry and all will be set to welcome PTI as a political force. On the other hand, every passing day will plant a nail in PML-N coffin, as they have virtually placed themselves head on with the rest of political entities.

 PML-N-PTI Alliance and the Tripple A:-

Army, Arab and America is seen as the key makers of any setup in Pakistan. If all goes by their side, the alliance will be practical, though the interest do clash a lot. PTI is acquiring a share of N’s domain, and one cant see them happy with this. But if the two parties join hand to topple the current setup, this merger might well be under way. Hints have come from both quarters, but AAA will play a major part in this plan. So for now on, hold tight to your seats and wait for the “Eid of Sacrifice”, because the dices will be rolled immediately after it.